Trump said he would impose tariffs on semiconductors within the next two weeks, SHFE tin prices may break through the range-bound pattern [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 18, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) dropped back slightly in the night session before hitting bottom and rebounding, closing at 267,300 yuan/mt, up 0.29% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) US President Trump stated he would impose tariffs on semiconductors within the next two weeks, the latest sign of his plan to significantly expand tariff policies. Aboard Air Force One en route to Alaska for a summit with Russian President Putin, Trump told reporters on Friday: "I'll decide on steel and chip tariffs next week and the week after—I mean chips and semiconductors. We'll finalize it next week or sometime in the coming weeks." It remains unclear whether Trump misspoke regarding steel tariffs. He had already raised import tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% in June. The president has repeatedly promised tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals within weeks but has yet to make an official announcement. Trump also hinted that semiconductor tariffs could be much higher, saying: "The rate I'm considering might be 200%, or perhaps 300%?" (2) OpenAI founder Sam Altman revealed in an interview that ChatGPT has rapidly become one of the world's most widely used and influential products. Now, he plans major expansions into consumer hardware, brain-computer interfaces, and social media. Additionally, he expressed interest in acquiring Chrome if the US government forces Google to sell it. He also mentioned ambitions to raise trillions of dollars to build data centers. (3) US Fed official Goolsbee: If we see signs by September or later in autumn that we're not in an inflation spiral, we can cut interest rates.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production regions like Yunnan, with some smelters potentially maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: Orders for PV solder bars in east China declined post-installation rush, with some producers reducing operating rates; Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season amid high tin prices, maintaining only essential orders amid strong wait-and-see sentiment; Other sectors: Stable demand from tinplate and chemical industries without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: After tin prices fell below 265,000 yuan/mt, downstream solder manufacturers purchased at lows through concentrated procurement, depleting visible inventory in the short term, with "post-pricing" transactions dominating deals.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise independent judgment and not treat this as a substitute for their own decision-making. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]